In 1780, a second revolution erupted in the New World. It took place across Spain’s colonies in the southern Andes and its goal was the re-establishment of the Incas – 240 years gone.

In November 1780, Jose Gabriel Condorcanqui, who called himself Tupac Amaru II and claimed to be the legitimate descendant of Tupac Amaru, led another rebellion against the Spaniards. This was the last major revolt to threaten Spanish control of the viceroyalty of Peru. At the head of 6,000 Indians and mestizos (those of mixed European and Indian ancestry), he defeated the first major Spanish force he encountered and captured two cannons and several hundred muskets. During the next month, after his force had swelled to 60,000 men and he had acquired 20 cannons, he turned his attention to Cuzco. Only one day before he reached Cuzco, the garrison of the city received a reinforcement of 200 men from Lima. The rebel leader occupied Sacsayhuaman, but, his cannons notwithstanding, he gained no great advantage over the Spaniards in Cuzco. In January, Tupac Amaru launched two attacks against the city, but failed both times. On January 23, 1781 a relief force ended the siege for good. By April, the rebellion was broken and the old Inca fortresses never served again.

Unlike the (north) American Revolution, the Andean Revolution was completely botched. It was started by the actions of a single man, Tupac Amaru, with only local support and zero military ability. The revolutionaries failed to take Cuzco, their first objective, and the leaders of the revolt were captured, executed, and their bodies destroyed before five months had passed. Large scale uprisings inspired by the first were annihilated piecemeal. By the end, the entire thing had degenerated into a vicious racial and class war. Except for pure-blooded Indians, most of the Revolution’s initial supporters were driven into supporting the Spanish. It was over by 1783, having accomplished nothing beyond killing a few thousand Creoles and Mestizos along with a 100,000 Indians.

What if?

Might as well point it out right away: The Andeans had nowhere near the likelihood of success that the Yankees did.

There was no military tradition in the colonies. There was no organization among the rebels. Logistics were terrible. Much fewer people had weapons. The revolts took place only in the interior, so support by foreign powers is almost completely out of the question. Until he rebelled, Tupac Amaru was just one of the many Indian nobles in Peru; he was an unknown. The Spanish had troops to spare because they were on the winning side of the war.

That said, I think they had an outside chance, especially if the revolution broke out in a different way.

Tupac Amaru (Jose Gabriel Condocanqui) (1742-1797)
Leader of the PERUVIAN REVOLUTION (1779-1784) and first INCA, second dynasty, of TAHUANTINSUYU. Fought for Spain in Havana during SEVEN YEARS WAR. Tupac Amaru assumed his position as chief of Tinta, south of CUZCO, upon his father’s death in 1770. [1] Tupac Amaru also continued his father’s effort to use his links to the Inca dynasty to develop an Indian base of support and his Spanish connections to attract Creole and Mestizo people to his reformist political movement that espoused Inca nationalism, fairer taxes, better courts, and a more open interregional economy. In late 1779, reacting to economic abuses, Tupac Amaru plotted the execution of the local Spanish corregidor and then recruited a large indigenous army, led by non-Indian, middle-level, provincial leaders, which occupied much of the highland area, eventually capturing Cuzco. [2] Tupac Amaru suffered nearly fatal injuries in 1780 and again in 1783, but managed to avoid kidnapping and assassination attempts throughout the war. He played a significant role in both attacks on Cuzco and the siege of Lima that decided the war. [3] During his reign as Inca, Tupac Amaru presided over the rebirth of Tahuantinsuyu (the land of four quarters), oversaw the revival of the Peruvian faith, reformed the courts, and signed a concordat with the Pope.

[1] Actually decided to have his father be my great man – Jose just builds on his dad’s work. Basically, he lives longer and starts a movement to reform Spanish colonialism stronger and more organized than in OTL.

[2] Unlike OTL, other groups were organized enough to rebel early on. The most significant, outside Lima, prevented Spanish troops from piercing the interior until Cuzco had fallen. The capture of the old capital was enough impetus to bring over practically all of Alta Peru (Bolivia) and Baja Peru (Peru) except for the coastal cities. The initial Spanish counter-attack in 1780 failed to take Cuzco after a short siege. Cuzco would switch hands twice more before the end of the war.

[3] Spain (under concentrated British pressure) ducked out of the general war early, leaving the English-speaking revolutionaries to fend for themselves. Spain launched a two-pronged assault towards Cuzco in 1781-1782 from Lima and up the trans-continental route from Buenos Aires. The advance from Lima was defeated, but the southern army reached and captured Cuzco, Tupac Amaru only barely escaping. The city was recaptured at the end of 1782, but the Spanish could not be driven from positions surrounding the city. The rest of the war was significantly slower, with the Spanish attempting to expand their 1000 mile salient into the Andes and the Peruvians forcing coastal towns. The war was finally ended when the fall of Lima made continuing the conflict impossible.